Disaster Scenario Master List

Global

• Collapse of US dollar, pound, Euro, or Yuan:
• The sudden and catastrophic devaluation or failure of major global currencies, such as the US dollar, British pound, Euro, or Chinese Yuan, leading to economic turmoil and disruptions in international trade. This can possibly cause a global economic meltdown.
• Global Economic Meltdown:
• A worldwide economic crisis, such as a severe global recession or financial system collapse, could have cascading effects on economies, trade, and financial markets globally.
• Nuclear war:
• Large-scale use of nuclear weapons in a conflict, causing mass destruction, loss of life, long-term environmental damage, and global security concerns.
• AMOC collapse:
• The shutdown or significant weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), an ocean current system, which can lead to altered weather patterns, sea level rise, and disruptions to marine ecosystems and fisheries.
• Pandemics:
• Widespread outbreaks of infectious diseases, affecting large populations across borders, straining healthcare systems, and impacting economies and daily life.
• Solar flares and geomagnetic storms (space weather-related):
• Solar flares and geomagnetic storms caused by solar activity that can disrupt electrical grids, communication systems, and navigation technology on a global scale.
• Major Cybersecurity Breach:
• A large-scale cyberattack on critical infrastructure, financial systems, or communication networks could disrupt services and information flows across countries, affecting various industries and international security.
• Large-Scale Environmental Catastrophe:
• An environmental catastrophe on a global scale, such as a supervolcanic eruption, asteroid impact, or widespread drought, could disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and climate patterns, leading to food and water scarcity and potentially global destabilization.
• Mass Migration and Refugee Crisis:
• Large-scale migrations of people due to conflicts, environmental factors, or economic instability could strain resources and stability in multiple countries and regions.
• Water Scarcity and Resource Conflicts:
• Severe water scarcity, compounded by resource conflicts, could lead to international tensions and conflicts over access to water resources, affecting agriculture, industry, and livelihoods worldwide.
• Loss of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Collapse:
• A rapid decline in biodiversity, with cascading effects on ecosystems, could lead to agricultural and environmental disruptions, impacting food security and human well-being globally.
• Biological or Chemical Terrorism:
• Deliberate release of biological or chemical agents by terrorists could result in mass casualties and have far-reaching implications for public health, security, and international relations.
• Extensive Infrastructure Failures:
• Large-scale infrastructure failures, such as the collapse of power grids, transportation networks, or communication systems, could disrupt daily life, commerce, and emergency services on a global scale.
• Widespread Social Unrest:
• Global waves of social and political unrest, stemming from factors like economic inequality, political instability, or human rights abuses, could lead to political crises, diplomatic tensions, and trade disruptions.
• Continued Climate Change Impact:
• Escalating impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and ecosystem degradation, can have global consequences for economies, migration patterns, and resource availability.
• Resource Scarcity and Trade Conflicts:
• Global resource scarcity, whether in terms of rare minerals, energy sources, or essential raw materials, can lead to international competition, trade disputes, and potential conflicts.
• Large-Scale Infrastructure Failures:
• A major failure in global infrastructure, such as the internet or satellite communications, could disrupt commerce, information flow, and security on a worldwide scale.

Country/Regional

• Collapse of local economy/currency:
• The sudden and severe devaluation or failure of a specific local or regional currency, resulting in economic turmoil and hardships within a limited geographic area.
• Nuclear accident:
• Accidental release of radioactive materials from a nuclear facility, potentially causing health and environmental hazards within the vicinity of the accident.
• Epidemics:
• Outbreaks of infectious diseases that primarily affect a specific region or community, causing localized public health challenges and disruptions.
• Extended power outages:
• Prolonged and widespread disruptions in electrical power supply, often due to factors like severe weather, equipment failure, or grid problems, impacting local or regional infrastructure and services.
• Natural Disaster
• Earthquakes
• Tsunamis
• Volcanic eruptions
• Hurricanes (also known as cyclones or typhoons, depending on the region)
• Tornadoes
• Floods
• Wildfires
• Landslides
• Droughts
• Blizzards
• Avalanches
• Extreme heatwaves
• Severe thunderstorms
• Hailstorms
• Sinkholes
• Mudslides
• Rockfalls
• Winter storms
• Ice storms
• Sandstorms
• Tidal waves
• Civil Unrest
• Protests: Peaceful gatherings of individuals or groups to express their grievances, demands, or opinions about a particular issue.
• Riots: Uncontrolled and often violent disturbances characterized by property damage, looting, and confrontations with law enforcement.
• Demonstrations: Organized public displays of support or opposition for a cause or issue, often involving speeches, signs, and slogans.
• Strikes: Work stoppages or labor protests initiated by employees to demand better working conditions, higher wages, or other employment-related rights.
• Marches: Organized processions or parades used to raise awareness and advocate for a cause or issue.
• Occupations: The takeover of a public space, building, or institution as a form of protest or resistance, such as sit-ins or occupations of government buildings.
• Civil Disobedience: Deliberate and nonviolent refusal to obey certain laws, demands, or commands as a means of protest.
• Student Protests: Demonstrations and actions by students to advocate for changes in educational policies, tuition fees, or other university-related issues.
• Political Unrest: Opposition to or discontent with a government's policies, actions, or leadership, often leading to protests, strikes, or demonstrations.
• Social Movements: Ongoing, organized efforts to bring about social, political, or cultural change, such as the civil rights movement or the women's rights movement.
• Anti-War Protests: Demonstrations and movements against wars, military interventions, or the arms industry.
• Ethnic and Racial Unrest: Protests and conflicts resulting from racial or ethnic tensions, discrimination, or systemic inequalities.
• Labor Unrest: Widespread discontent and protests within the labor force due to issues like low wages, unsafe working conditions, or lack of job security.
• Environmental Protests: Demonstrations and actions related to environmental issues, such as deforestation, climate change, or pollution.
• Food Riots: Protests driven by food shortages, high prices, or issues related to access to food.
• Immigration Protests: Demonstrations and movements regarding immigration policies, border security, and the rights of immigrants.
• Religious Conflicts: Unrest stemming from religious differences, beliefs, or tensions between religious groups.
• Class Struggles: Discontent and protests related to socioeconomic disparities and inequalities.
• Prisoner Uprisings: Rebellions or protests by incarcerated individuals in prisons or detention facilities.
• Cultural and Artistic Protests: Demonstrations and movements by artists, writers, or cultural figures advocating for artistic freedom or cultural expression.
• Supply Chain disruption
  A significant interruption or breakdown in the flow of goods, materials, information, or services within a supply chain, often caused by various factors such as natural disasters, accidents, economic crises, or other unexpected events, resulting in delays, increased costs, and challenges in meeting customer demands.
• Road, Rail, Canal, River, & Port Closures/Disruptions
• Infrastructure Failures:
• Infrastructure failures, such as mechanical failures in lock systems or canal, track damage, bridge collapses, signaling system malfunctions, or road surface deterioration, can disrupt transportation routes and require maintenance or repairs.
• Natural Disasters:
• Natural disasters like floods, landslides, earthquakes, severe weather events, or hurricanes can damage transportation infrastructure, disrupt operations, and pose safety risks, leading to temporary closures.
• Strikes and Labor Disputes:
• Labor strikes, work stoppages, or disputes among transportation workers or related personnel can halt operations, leading to delays in the movement of goods.
• Security Incidents:
• Acts of vandalism, terrorism, theft, or hijacking can disrupt transportation by rail, road, or waterways, resulting in temporary shutdowns for security reasons.
• Regulatory Compliance Issues:
• Non-compliance with safety, environmental, or other regulations can lead to service interruptions in road, rail, and port operations.
• Network Congestion:
• Overcrowding and congestion in transportation networks, whether by ship, rail or road, can lead to temporary closures or delays in the movement of goods.
• Accidents and Derailments:
• Accidents, including train derailments or vehicle collisions on roads, ship accidents, such as collisions, groundings, or spills, can disrupt transportation and result in temporary closures to address safety concerns, environmental damage, or wreckage removal.
• Supply Chain Complexity:
• Complex supply chain networks may be vulnerable to disruptions, especially when a single transportation route is critical, potentially causing widespread effects.
• Geopolitical Factors:
• Political instability, international conflicts, trade disputes, or border closures can affect cross-border transportation, impacting the flow of goods.
• Extreme Weather Conditions:
• Severe weather conditions, such as hurricanes, typhoons, heavy rainfall, heavy snowfall, extreme cold, high winds, or visibility issues due to fog, can impede transportation, causing delays and disruptions.
• In colder climates, ice formation in winter can obstruct navigation, requiring the closure of waterways until icebreakers clear paths for vessels.
• Prolonged periods of drought can lower water levels in rivers and canals, making it difficult or impossible for vessels to navigate and necessitating closures.
• Infrastructure Maintenance:
• Planned maintenance, repairs, or upgrades to transportation infrastructure, including canal locks, dams, rail, roads, and ports, can lead to scheduled closures.
• Environmental Issues:
• Environmental incidents like oil spills, chemical leaks, or pollution can necessitate temporary closures in ports and canals to address and mitigate the environmental impact.
• Health Crises:
• Health crises, including pandemics, may lead to port and canal closures due to public health concerns, restrictions on personnel movement, or quarantine measures.
• Trade Disputes:
• Ongoing trade disputes or conflicts between countries can result in disruptions, embargoes, tariffs, or sanctions, affecting port activity and transportation.
• Protests and Demonstrations:
• Protests, demonstrations, or strikes on or near roads can block traffic and disrupt the movement of goods. These disruptions can be unpredictable.
• Fuel Shortages:
• A shortage of fuel can lead to transportation delays or interruptions as vehicles may not have access to the necessary fuel to continue their journeys.
• List of Globally Vital Canals & Rivers:
• Panama Canal:
• Located in Central America, the Panama Canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Isthmus of Panama. It is a vital route for international trade, significantly reducing the sailing distance between the east and west coasts of North America. It carries 14,000 ships per year and 6% of all international trade transits this canal.
• Suez Canal:
• Situated in Egypt, the Suez Canal connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, providing a shorter route between Europe and Asia. It is one of the busiest and most strategically important shipping canals globally.
• Suez-Mediterranean (Suez Canal Extension):
• Also known as the Suez-Mediterranean Canal or the New Suez Canal, this extension runs parallel to the original Suez Canal, allowing for two-way traffic and reducing congestion. It provides greater capacity for ships transiting between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.
• Kiel Canal (Nord-Ostsee-Kanal):
• Located in Germany, the Kiel Canal connects the North Sea to the Baltic Sea, bypassing the lengthy and often hazardous journey around the Jutland Peninsula. It is a key route for European and international trade.
• Welland Canal:
• Situated in Canada, the Welland Canal connects Lake Ontario to Lake Erie, enabling ships to bypass the Niagara Falls and facilitating the movement of goods and raw materials.
• Saint Lawrence Seaway:
• The Saint Lawrence Seaway, consisting of a series of canals and locks, connects the Great Lakes in North America to the Atlantic Ocean via the Saint Lawrence River. It is a critical trade route for North American industries and commerce.
• Corinth Canal:
• Situated in Greece, the Corinth Canal connects the Ionian Sea to the Aegean Sea, allowing ships to bypass the lengthy journey around the Peloponnese Peninsula.
• Erie Canal:
• Located in the United States, the Erie Canal connects the Great Lakes to the Hudson River, providing access to the Port of New York and facilitating trade between the Midwest and the East Coast.
• Mississippi River:
• The Mississippi River and its tributaries are vital for the transportation of goods in the central United States. Closure of this waterway would disrupt the flow of agricultural products, energy resources, and manufactured goods, affecting both domestic and international trade.
• Rhine River:
• The Rhine River is a key waterway in Europe, connecting several countries and providing access to major industrial centers. Closure of the Rhine could disrupt the flow of goods within Europe and affect industries such as manufacturing, chemicals, and logistics.
• Yangtze River:
• The Yangtze River is China's longest and most economically important river. It plays a crucial role in transporting goods within China and supporting trade with other countries. Closure of the Yangtze could have a significant impact on China's domestic and international supply chains.
• Danube River:
• The Danube River is Europe's second-longest river and serves as a vital transportation route for various European countries. Closure of the Danube could disrupt trade and the movement of goods within Central and Eastern Europe.
• Amazon River:
• The Amazon River and its tributaries are crucial for transporting goods in South America, particularly in Brazil and the surrounding regions. Closure of the Amazon River could affect trade in agricultural products, minerals, and other commodities.
• Paraná River:
• The Paraná River is another significant river in South America, connecting countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. Closure of the Paraná could impact the transportation of agricultural products, minerals, and energy resources in the region.
• Volga River:
• The Volga River in Russia is an essential transportation route, connecting various regions and serving as a key artery for the movement of goods. Closure of the Volga could disrupt trade within Russia and neighboring countries.
• Nile River:
• The Nile River is a lifeline for Egypt and Sudan, supporting trade and transportation in the region. Closure of the Nile could affect the movement of goods and commodities, including food and energy resources.
• Indus River:
• The Indus River is a significant waterway in South Asia, connecting regions in Pakistan and India. Closure of the Indus could disrupt trade and transportation in the area.
• Mekong River:
• The Mekong River is a vital waterway in Southeast Asia, supporting trade and transportation in countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Laos. Closure of the Mekong could impact regional trade in agricultural products and manufactured goods.